(ZT)Global house prices
Hong Kong phew-whee Our quarterly index reveals the world’s most overvalued homes Mar 3rd 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print editionIN CROWDED Hong Kong, property is so expensive that even the estate agents are squeezed for space. The number of licensed agents reached 31,306 at the end of last year, an increase of 40% since March 2009. The qualifying exam is so popular that fees are going up. Golden Hill Properties in Wanchai makes do with a storefront but no store. Its agents perch on stools outside, reading from computer screens encased behind glass and typing on keyboards unlocked from a drawer. But whatever those 31,000 agents say, Hong Kong homes are not a good deal, according to our latest global house-price index (see chart). In theory, the price of a home should reflect the value of the services it provides. People who choose to rent their homes buy those services on a monthly basis. Home prices should therefore reflect the rents that tenants pay. Our index calculates the ratio of prices to rents in 20 economies. In Hong Kong, that ratio is now almost 54% above its long-run average—and it is still rising. People in Hong Kong often blame buyers from mainland China for pushing up prices. Ironically, mainlanders often blame buyers from Hong Kong for their own property frenzy. At a recent conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing, students complained that their parents had scrimped and saved to send them to university in the city, but now upon graduation they could barely afford to live there. Prices in China are not that high relative to rents: our index suggests that homes are overvalued by less than 13%. But this is based on the government’s 70-cities index, which showed prices rising by only 6.4% in the year to December. That figure seemed implausibly low to many of China’s stretched homebuyers, and the Chinese government appears to share their scepticism. Last month it said it would stop publishing the national figures, releasing only the local results instead. These show plenty of variation between cities: prices rose by 6.8% in Beijing in January, for instance, but by 1.5% in Shanghai. Hong Kong’s price rises are the steepest in our index but it is not the most overvalued housing market. That honour remains with Australia, which is overvalued by about 56%. In third place is France, where the ratio of prices to rents is about 48% above average. That may be one reason why over 40% of residents choose to rent. Tenants are well protected under French law from capricious landlords. Owners, on the other hand, must contend with volatile prices, partly because housing supply is so unresponsive to demand. A 10% increase in prices prompts only a 3.6% increase in supply, according to the OECD, compared with a 20% increase in America. Explore and compare global housing data with our interactive house-price tool In Australia the market is at least inching closer to fair value. Home prices in Australia’s eight state capitals rose by only 1.2% in the year to January, according to the RP Data-Rismark index. Compared with the month before, prices fell by 1.6%. (The index shows the latest quarterly data.) Indeed, only in Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland is the property market more overvalued than it was before the global economic downturn began in the third quarter of 2007. In every other market the ratio of prices to rents has fallen over that period. In America, prices may have overshot a little. Using the Case-Shiller index of prices, the market looks undervalued by almost 8%. In both Japan and Germany the housing market is drifting even further below fair value: homes were already cheap and are growing cheaper. In Germany the ratio of prices to rents has tended to fall since the early 1980s, a trend interrupted, and then briefly, only by unification. In Japan owning has been getting cheaper relative to renting since 1990, when the country’s infamous property bubble burst with devastating effect. The market is now undervalued by more than a third, our index suggests. Even estate agents seem to be losing heart. According to the Real Estate Transaction Improvement Organisation, their numbers have fallen for the past four fiscal years.

(ZT)Singapore World Number 3 for Prime Home Price Rise
Apr 13, 2011 - Samantha Loveridge


The price jump for Singapore’s luxury homes has been so high it now stands at the third largest in the world for 2010. Our country now lies behind only Shanghai and Mumbai according to The Wealth Report 2011 which has been carried out by Citi Private Bank and property consultancy Knight Frank.

Top priced homes in Singapore increased by 18% last year, equalling that of Helsinki, Finland. In 2009, we were ranked fifth with a 17% rise.

Usually Hong Kong, New York and London are among the top contenders, but all saw price drops in 2010 (ranging from 10-15%).

The official data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) shows that private home prices (including everything from mass market to luxury) increased to 17.6% last year. However, despite the jumps, luxury home prices only ranked 10th most expensive across the world.

According to the Wealth Report, at the end of last year, average prices for luxury homes reached US$27,100 (S$34,154psm), which is half the price of those in Monaco, where prices were recorded as being US$65,600psm.

Compare Singapore to London last year, however, and the price of homes looks relatively cheap! The English capital weighed in second for their price of luxury homes averaging US $56,300psm.

Looking broadly across the world, 2010 seems to have been a profitable one for high-end homes, with two out of five of the world’s most elite residences rising in value. The report studied the prices of luxury homes in 85 cities across 40 countries.

一些数据，最近对房产比较有兴趣，分享给大家看
Number of HDB Flats in Singapore is Approximately 1,038,473 flats
The population of Singapore on April 20th 2011 is approximately 4,467,092.
A total of 35,319 private property transactions were seen last year, up 11 percent from the previous year but still lower than the 2007 record level of 37,799 transactions. Total transactional value reached S$57.9 billion in 2010, also higher than in 2009 but below the 2007 level.
As at 4Q2010, there was a total supply of 65,699 uncompleted units from private housing projects in the pipeline.1 Of these, 33,000 units were still unsold. This supply can last for about 3 years based on the historical annual take-up over the past 5 years. This supply also does not take into account new sites that were recently sold2 or will be made available for development through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme. Prospective home-buyers are advised to take into consideration the ample pipeline supply of private housing, as well as the potential supply of private housing from GLS sites, when making decisions on property purchase.

(ZT) Pipeline Supply Of Private Residential Units By Market Segment
Pipeline Supply Of Private Residential Units By Market Segment, Development Status And Expected Year Of Completion As At End Of 4th Quarter 2010

从这个图上看，supply of new private home 在2013，2014年会达到个顶点。
不过sales 是在completion 之前就应该完成大半了。所以之前有个贴子说2011年是private property market 的拐点。个人觉得还是很有道理的。

我觉得私宅上涨空间还是挺大的
如果您不能买新组屋，可以考虑私宅，比二手组屋空间大。

能说说为什么吗？我现在有组屋，想买一间公寓自住。但是很怕一买买个顶
而且对于我家来说，最方便的地方是西部。不过那边现在已经涨的很离谱了。

西部比较离谱，建议你考虑一下名校附近
比如南华小学附近的那栋公寓，70多平米大约85万。

理由是目前的公寓价格比1996年搞不了多少，但能出钱买的人却多了很多。1996年面卖多少钱一碗啊，现在多少钱？

此外，目前大选人们都说房子贵，政府要降温，这说明房子依然有突破的潜力。

我的综合理解是拐点在即。 但这将是个非常温和的拐点。
而分区域来看，某些区域仍将继续上涨。 并且就算是拐点也只是一时，长期依然看涨。

结论是，自住的话，尽管出手；我正要下手了。 人生苦短，早买一时多享受一时：）

park west and regent park? 看了一下，3房差不多要价将近90万。
而且没什么人买。iproperty 上只有1-2家出售的。
看来很难讲价。。。。