总结一哈
美股的熊市(调整)大概可以分为3类 这里的时间的长度, 都是相对大周期级别来算的. 第一种是价格10-20%的调整,时间也较短. 可以理解为大级别牛市中的调整. 第二种是价格35%-50$的调整, 市场见底通常会以拖时间的方式完成, 关键的是在过程当中, 会有比较象样的大级别的反弹. (1942放到大周期也是这种熊) 第三种是价格超过80%的调整,即彻底的股灾. 时间不会太长. 以美金计算的Dow指只发生过一次, 既1929. 注意,1942熊是以时间完成调整的, 还没有过市场价格调整的范围在50%-75%之间. 这个时候你要分析一哈2008熊的特点, 幅度大,肯定不是第一种熊. 2008在下跌的过程当中少有反弹,或者说根本没有象样的反弹, 而且时间短, 已经调整这么多. 所以不是很符合第2 种熊. 那如果是第3种熊的话,你要判断我们在熊的哪个阶段. 无论是investor, 还是trader要有开拓的思维. 于是我采取的是70年代入行,经历过80年代market crash的恐龙级trader的方法. 比较各类资产. 资金最终还是要找地方安家的, 无非这几个市场, 债市,股市,现金, 黄金, 大宗商品,房地产. 具体分析就不说了, 但是大家可以回想一下, 03-07我们真的有股市的大牛市吗? 不过是housing boom + commodity boom(commodity boom真的结束了吗?) 叠加在一起罢了. 你把Dow 和黄金这个各个国家的银行都要关注的资产种类, 叠加在一起, 整个周期就很明确了. 这样你可以看出股票是OUTPERFORM GOLD还是under perform Gold. 20年代到1929, 1900年以来的第一波美股牛市. 那个时代,是个发明的时代, 诞生了收音机,电视等. 再29年大崩盘前, 人们称之为"新时代"的到来. 1931-1965, 第2波牛市,算是一个机械和电气化的时代, 那时的人们也称之为"新时代". 34年 1974年-1999年,是半导体和网络通信的时代, 1999年Dow指高点时,人们也称之为, 新时代.i时代. 25年 2008-2009后的若干年, 是什么时代, 我们只有在在整个周期过去后才会来总结这个时代都发生了什么 有人猜测是水和粮食危机, 有人猜测是生物和医疗革命, 有人猜测是从offshore 过度到海底时代, 这些我不知道,但是有一样东西是肯定会发生的: 能源革命!Energy Revolution.. 短期来看, 因为对金融系统和银行的极其不信任, 大家都把钱从银行取走,埋到自己家后院里或者饼干盒子里,所以市场发这么多的货币, 居然没有通货膨胀, 还有通货紧缩的风险, 因为货币没有很好的流通. 你换个角度, 站在银行家的角度去想, 可以试着去想未来会发生什么. 银行家拉上政客和其他银行家凑在一起开会(我没说哪个国家) , 必须把老百姓后院和饼干盒子里的钱逼出来, 否则银行家得破产, 政府得倒台. 最好的办法, 最后银行家和政客想了想, hyperinflatoin, 高速通货膨胀!短暂的高速通货膨胀才可以让流通变得正常, 关键词,短暂. 忘记7, 8%的通帐吧, hyperinflation 起码要20%, 30%, 50%的. 前期WMT, MCD的股票价格为啥么这么强势? 就是这个道理, 老百姓看到物价涨, 不花不行, 不如早花. 我,作为一个普通老百姓有选择吗,敢选择吗? 这个世界,就是痛苦了一代人, 再痛苦下一代人. 为什么大多数人,不管20,30时有多风光, 到40,50,脸上总写着点迷茫, 就是这个道理.

所以什么情况会投降, 反手做空?
离底线还远
黄金离4位数还远
Dow指7000以下到3500没有像样的支撑。 (挖坑是挖坑, 掉井里是掉井里, 不同的命运)


别哭,这个世界一切正常,周末被美女约了打麻将...

yeti大割，请问你被套多少了？
抄底的仓位割了没？别转这些没有营养的东西了，学学卡奴，以自身经历，教育一下同学，或许版主给花呢。

汗 所以跌过7000你就做空？！？！
这不是挂着技术分析的羊头 卖着追涨杀跌的狗肉么

equity 方面如图

左手嘛


金子这个东西,新开空仓已经不合适. 前几天,友人来电说,UOB有卖1公斤的砖头, 有动手的打算. 呵呵,俺说:" 等等,等等.要冷静". 现在等待买点是比较正确的心态. 这个市场里有去年高点卖了楼花和公寓的人,有一路做空股票1年多的人,有在去年欧元1.4就实盘挂空,现在终于获得利息汇率双丰收的人, 有在波罗地海干货指数11000点逃跑的人. 华新论坛里不是没有, 不过这些朋友永远潜水. 你认识其中一个,就会认识一批. 心态!!!! 要想在市场里生存, 心态最重要!浮亏3,4成不要紧, 心态一旦被锁定, 就没有翻身的机会了. 前几天偶然看到一个有多个quotes的网页, 黄金, 原油和汇率的价位,给我一种感觉:" 好象又回到2003年刚入市的时候." 一个是浮亏20%-30% (相信绝大多数人已经达到(70%-90%),一个是已经卖掉亏了40%有余, 有些人手里拿的是现金, 有些人手里拿得是资产. Quote from Warren, 不是我说的 THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities. Why? A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price. Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy. Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts. Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities. Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

问题是会到7000吗?
问题是会到7000吗?

不是不可能.但是跌过7000
黄金空头就赚发咯!

Dow, 黄金, 可不是一个两个力量单独能说得算得了. 跨市场做Ratio trade 就这一个好处.对手盘再强大,也不可能多个市场同时压倒你.

纸交还是口交？
给你点颜色还开起染坊了。

技术分析的目的是什么: 低买高卖!!!!!
低不低?
敢不敢动手? 光说没用,下手了吗? 到头来一路嘲笑的人赚走了最多的钱.


不谈抄底. 咱说低买.

低买是一种性格. 无论是散户,还是机构, 都是10个人里面9个人亏钱,为什么?
那一个人赚钱. 怎么赚的? 我觉得智商,经验,分析方法都算进去, 也不能说明问题.
经历这一波, 我觉得最终还是要回归到: 性格.

时间会证明: 股市最大的悲哀还真不是亏钱, 是买不到股票.