早在今年年初，气象学家就预测本次超强厄尔尼诺事件可能于5月底结束。而在6月3日举行的中国气象局例行新闻发布会上，厄尔尼诺“退休”的消息终于正式获宣布。

堪称“史上最强”厄尔尼诺
本次厄尔尼诺事件发端于2014年9月。经过一年多的“洗礼”，公众对厄尔尼诺事件已不再陌生。这一发生在赤道太平洋中东部的海水大范围持续异常偏暖现象，通过大气环流系统的相互作用，可能对全球气候产生深远影响。
回顾历史，自1951年以来，全球共发生14次厄尔尼诺事件，其中3次达到超强级别，分别是1982/1983年厄尔尼诺事件、1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件及本次事件。
国家气候中心主任宋连春指出，本次事件在峰值强度、持续时间、累积海温距平、距平连续超过2.0摄氏度的月份等指标上，对前两次超强厄尔尼诺形成“全面超越”，堪称“史上最强”厄尔尼诺。
拉尼娜“接棒”厄尔尼诺
气候专家监测表明，当前赤道中东太平洋冷水正快速发展。如果海水降温幅度和时间达到一定临界值，则可能引发厄尔尼诺的反面——拉尼娜现象。
拉尼娜的危害通常弱于厄尔尼诺，但近60年来拉尼娜事件影响表明，拉尼娜发生后，我国部分地区秋雨偏多，冬季全国大部以降水偏少为主，气温偏低。尽管拉尼娜现象未必直接作用于主汛期，但对后期气候走势的影响不容忽视。
来源：http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2016/6/347999.shtm
　
El Nino/La Nina Status Update Updated on 13 May 2016

The El Nino weakened further in April 2016, approaching moderate-to-weak level based on April’s Nino 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) readings (Figure A ). The large-scale atmospheric responses to El Nino reflects its sustained weakening with the trade winds near the equatorial Pacific Ocean being near average and the cloud patterns there showing less of the typical El Nino characteristics. The Nino3.4 index for April 2016 is 1.2 (Figure B ) and the latest 3-month average (Feb-Apr) dipped from 2.3 to 1.8.
Impact of El Nino/La Nina on Singapore

Singapore would normally experience drier and warmer conditions during El Nino events, especially during the Southwest Monsoon period (June – September), including October. The opposite, i.e. wetter conditions over Singapore, usually occurs during La Nina events. Outside of this season, the impact of El Nino/La Nina is less significant for Singapore (Figure F). For example during the Northeast Monsoon season (December to early March), the link between El Nino/La Nina and rainfall over Singapore and the nearby region is not significant.

Figure　B: Monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the Nino3.4 region (120°W-170°W and 5°S-5°N) of the tropical Pacific Ocean from Apr 2015 to Apr 2016 (image credit: IRI Map Room). The El Nino is expected to end by mid-2016.


Figure　E: Probability of El Nino (red), La Nina (blue) and neutral conditions (green) for 2016. Neutral conditions are more likely to occur by the middle of 2016 while La Nina are increasingly more favoured than neutral conditions towards the end of 2016 (image credit: IRI-CPC).