Yanload
Yanlord: FY10 revenue and earnings fell short of estimates. Revenue was flat at Rmb 7384m, mainly due to a booking delay at one of its Nanjing projects, which offset higher ASP of Rmb 22.5k psm (+15% yoy). Core earnings (excl net revaluation) of Rmb 1262m, was up 16% yoy, but still came in 25% below consensus. DPS was cut by 23% yoy to Rmb 5.99cts...

Notably, net debt increased 22x yoy to Rmb 6.5b and gearing rose to 33% from 2% last yr. So far, the co still enjoys favorable rates from banks (10% discount to PBOC benchmark lending rate), though that could change in a rising interest rate environment...

As of Feb 2011, total unbooked sales were Rmb9.4b, suggesting 85% mgt guidance for Rmb11b sales has been locked in. This compares with Rmb 9b achieved in 2010. Capex guidance of Rmb 7b for construction and Rmb 3.8b for total land payment implies relatively low financial flexibility to buy more land if banks further tighten credit...

The Street cuts 2011/12E net profit forecasts by ~20%, to take into account slower sales and general ASP declines of 5-15%.
Macquarie downgrades to Neutral with $1.42 TP, pegged at 35% discount to RNAV of $2.20 in view of high-end exposure risk. .
Goldman maintains at Neutral with $1.87 TP, on lower project sell-through amid tightening.
Deutsche maintains at Buy with $2.10 TP, pegged at 30% discount to RNAV of $2.97, to be in line with peers.

潘石屹：五成房企三年内将被淘汰

SOHO中国董事长潘石屹3月9日表示，新一轮调控以扩大保障房供给和压缩商品房需求为主导，受此影响，在未来两三年内，至少有50%的房地产企业会被淘汰出局。遭淘汰的房企主要是实力比较差、产品与保障性住房在地理位置、产品质量和户型上没有太多差距的房企。
今年开始，货币政策逐步从紧，“新国八条”出台之后，全国各个城市销售成交量大幅度下滑，这使房企的资金链面临严峻考验。今年以来，多家上市公司在香港发高息债，部分票据的利率超过13%，这意味着房地产市场的流动性正在趋紧，楼市大调整也正在酝酿。

根据计划，今年全国将建设1000万套保障性住房，所需资金1.3万亿元，其中政府出资5000亿元，其余8000亿元需要企业和社会解决。对此，潘石屹指出，政府能否吸引开发商或其他民间资本参与保障房建设，关键取决于保障房开发有没有退出机制，比如多年以后允许销售租赁型保障房。另外，政府也应采取贴息等办法，使房企开发保障房能满足最低回报的要求。

潘石屹认为，“十二五”期间国家计划建设3600万套保障房，住房市场一半以上的供应将由政府来主导，这将对中国房地产格局造成重大影响，一线城市的地产格局将朝着香港、新加坡的模式发展。相当一部分住宅开发商将转型；一是积极参与政府保障房的开发，二是向商业地产的转向。