谈谈专业炒股应追求的回报 by陈江挺
我们这个网站居然有这么高比例的网友在专职炒股，真让我大吃一惊！炒股的技巧等等就不多说了，大家可以在网站慢慢磨。这里谈谈什么是合理的，可以追求的回报！

大家对我做的pcg这个股票赞誉有加，我谢谢大家。但大家有没有算过这个操作的报酬率？八万多本金，2个月赚2千多，每个月1.5%不到；也就是说每年不到20%(这是满仓算，有空仓还得打折扣）。这个操作是实况演示，没得投机取巧；换句话说就是20年经验不外如此；不知道有多少网友有把握认为自己可以干的更好？

巴菲特1965-2005的记录是21.5%，这是辉煌的记录，足够让他成为全球首席投资者。只是21.5%！朋友。当您认为自己全职在做这件事情，没有50%的回报不算成功意味着什么？意味着您将不得不集中筹码去承担大的风险，意味着您随时面对毁灭的灾难。

媒体从来不缺那些宣传自己怎么在10几年将8千变成4亿的高手；我不怀疑或许有这样的事。纽约每个礼拜都有人将一块钱投资在2天之内变成3百万，更不得了的回报率。将一块钱变成3百万的都承认是自己运气好；偏偏8千变4亿的要说自己是价值投资本事大？嘿嘿，当看到林园被人索要记录时言辞之闪烁，让我回忆起另一位投资大仙，加拿大的“华人巴菲特”唐炜臻（大家不知这位大仙是谁的话请上网查查）。或许我们的文化缺少“上帝面前不可撒谎”信条，林园，唐炜臻之流层出不穷，而且媒体居然会乐于报道。说这些是想告诉本网的网友，这不是您们追求的目标。

那么您们追求的目标是什么呢？首先您们需要追求股市的胜率，如果闭着眼睛瞎买，50%的几率扣掉手续费，您迟早清盘。有了一定胜率后，您要分散风险，再读读我书中抛硬币的故事。美国上市的合作基金法律规定单个投资不超出总投资的5%， 就是最少20只股票。对散户而言，我认为有8-10只也差不多了。如果读者有学过portfolio theory， 当看到10只股票已大概稀释了市场个股分险。做好了这些，您应该可以期待每年10-20%的回报；您若真能在基本没有风险的情况下获得10-20%的回报，您出师了。会有千千万万的人人想请您帮他管钱。

业余股友中或有人将闲钱放在股市赌一赌，将所有本金买一只股票；我不怀疑他可能会连续三次碰到半年内股票从10跑到30的好事，这下他自己觉得自己是股神。但第四次大约就是10到1了！这种买彩票的心态赌股票不是专业炒股该有的。

再回到专业炒股。问一下您自己的本金有多少？10万的话您的期望不可超出每年1到2万的回报，否则您只好去做不正确的事情；专业炒手注重在正确的时间做正确的事情，结果交给上帝决定。碰到10几年前的大牛市，您可能来个100%，200%；把钱存起来，别幻想好事情会没完没了。碰到几年前的大熊市，您可能每年亏上10-20%， 这没关系，若10年算总帐， 您有10-20%的成绩就应该满足了。超出20%? 恭喜！您已经比巴菲特更牛。别小看20%，它意味着不到四年翻一倍。

请有意专业炒股的股友记住，专业炒股不要注重于赚钱，注重于控制风险；风险控制好了，赚钱的部分自己会关照自己。一个大起大落的户口是炒手还不成熟的标志，也预示您的成绩不具备重复性，不入行家之眼。 股市天天开，明天还有机会；慢慢来，不要急，祝大家好运。

陈江挺。

关于资金调配之分散投资 （zt）
下面的文章代表了部分基金经理对资金调配和分散投资的观点，与同学们分享。

小结如下：
理论上需要30个股票来降低单个公司风险。

巴菲特号称自己是”focus investing“，但是他拥有40+个股票。

一个本地经理认为自己有concentrated portfolio，他拥有35个股票。

Mr Eric 是比较分散的，他认为5%的资金投入到一只股票上有些过多，会影响到自己的思考和判断。


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BT Invest: Diversified versus focused approach to investing


by Teh Hooi Ling



In one, you spread out your bets, in the other, you go with what you know well. In the last few weeks, I talked about finding value in the market and ways to identify market under- and over-valuation. Finding discrepancy between the value of a company and the price that its stock is trading at in the market is only part of the analysis. You have to build a portfolio that takes advantage of the opportunities.

If you find value in a basket of stocks, but they all happen to be, say, in the real estate business, do you put all your money in stocks from just that one sector? Or, in another extreme scenario, do you put all your money into just one stock?

There are two schools of thoughts. One is the diversified approach, and the other, advocated by legendary investor Warren Buffett, is focus investing. The theory says that this risk can be minimised by having at least 30 stocks in the portfolio. Besides risks that are specific to the individual company, there is also the sectoral risk. For example, if you had all your money in real estate stocks a few weeks ago when the Government announced the surprise cooling measures, your portfolio would have taken a big hit the following Monday.

On a broader level, there are country risk and currency risk. There is even an asset class risk. Say you had all your money in stocks when the global financial crisis hit. No matter which market you were invested in, your portfolio would have suffered as stocks plummeted globally. So the idea of diversification is to allow an investor to spread out one’s bets.

The hope is that not all asset classes, not all stocks, will move in tandem. In some periods, you may have SingTel outperforming; other times Fraser & Neave might surge ahead. Or you may have China racing ahead in the last few years while Japan may power ahead in a different period. Theories in finance say that diversification allows the investor to eliminate indiosyncratic risks – or risks that are peculiar to a specific company. Say, Company A’s big customer suddenly declared bankruptcy. And Company A was owed a big chunk of money by that customer. Once the news broke, Company A’s stock price tanked. That’s an idiosyncratic risk. In contrast, the other school of thought is that you should bet big on high probability events.

How does one know if an event has a high probability of occurring? Well, by studying and understanding an investable situation inside out. If, after the in-depth analysis, you are 100 per cent convinced that the market has absolutely mispriced that asset, then you should have the conviction to allocate a big portion of your portfolio to that asset, says Mr Buffett. There is little risk if you know the industry, the business thoroughly, the argument goes. Of course, work in a big margin of safety as well – pay a significantly cheaper price than the fair value of the company. According to Mr Buffett, buying a whole long list of stocks increases the chances that you will buy something that you don’t know enough about.

One local fund manager, Mr Teng Ngiek Lian, of Target Asset adopts the concentrated approach in building his portfolio. His fund invests in only 35 stocks. Here’s what he told me back in 2008. “By having a concentrated portfolio, you stay focused. It makes you very honest with yourself. If you make a mistake, it’s going to be very painful. “You can’t be casual. If you want to put in one stock, you have to take one out. So you have to decide why you want the new one and give up the old one. We find this a very effective strategy. “Normal investors just buy and buy. Like African tribal chiefs, they don’t know how many children they have. They don’t have to bring them up, so they don’t worry.”

To narrow the list to just 35 stocks, Target actively monitors about 150 to 200 stocks. This is for comparison purpose. How do you know a stock is good unless you’ve compared it with others, he said. Mr Teng’s strategy seems to work well. Target Asset Management returned 17.6 per cent a year between 1996 and November 2010, net of fees.

Another fund manager, Mr Eric Kong of Aggregate Asset Management, however, holds a different view. “Warren Buffett advocates the focus approach,” he said. “But we find that when you bring your holding up to 5, 10, 20 per cent of your portfolio, you’ll make more behavioural mistakes. You start to get emotionally attached to the stock, you fall in love with the stock. That is dangerous because it can really affect your judgment.” Also, Mr Buffett has a gift. He is able to read business very accurately. Not everyone has that kind of gift, Mr Kong noted.

Aggregate prefers a more conservative and boring approach. “We concentrate on what’s currently on hand.” Its strategy is to buy a big basket of stocks with low multiples of earnings and cash flows, low price-to-net tangible assets, and high dividend yields. I explored this strategy a few weeks ago and the results have proved quite effective.

Personally, I’m more inclined towards the big basket of cheap stocks approach. I wrote about randomness in my first few articles. I wouldn’t want any random event to wipe out, say, 10 or 15 per cent of my portfolio.

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Originally published in The Sunday Times:

http://www.btinvest.com.sg/blogs/2013/02/04/diversified-versus-focused-approach-to-investing/

总结：加上通胀因素炒股最终就是无用功
吧非特是替人打工而已
风险就是赔钱的机率.
无法控制只能管理因风险都是未发生的
发生了的叫issue
钱不会生钱.了解次理便开始进入真正投资领域