Volatility has re-entered the life of investors--(zt)
来源--大千: 一诺千金 于 07-07-20
Over the past five years, stock market volatility has fallen to such low levels that you will be forgiven for not recalling what it is like. In June and July last year, and March, June and July this year, we've had a chance to witness its fury again firsthand. Although it's disconcerting, it's a normal part of the investing climate.and nothing to worry about. During a bull phase of the market, which is what we are still experiencing, spikes of jumpiness tend to be good times to be buying stocks, not selling. when I ead the Vix chart,the VIX from 2002 to the present, every spike above 1-standard deviation Bollinger Band -- which is just a mathematical way of "normalizing" the index values over time -- has been a good time to accumulate or add to positions. My reading has shown that there are usually three spikes of volatility at a time, as ripple effects cause waves of panicky selling. I regard today's action constituted the third spike, following the first two in June.
This sort of volatility generally comes about as investors adjust to a disturbance in "the force," which is typically results from an information dislocation. First was the discovery that two bond-oriented hedge funds at a major brokerage like Bear Stearns .The second shock has come from the discovery this week that private equity funds are having a hard time selling some of the bonds required to get a couple of recent corporate buyouts financed. Another yellow flag is the lack of broad participation in the recent advance to new highs in the market.
When investors become selective, the indexes and strong sectors can continue to rise for some period of time -- even as much as four to six months. But if the A/D line doesn't pick up, IT IS JUST ANOTHER SIGN THAT THERE COULB BE A MORE SERIOUS DECLINE IN THE OFFLING, AS I POSTED IN MY OLD POSTS. My fouce suggests that I don't have to really worry about that until mid-August, BUT WE MIGHT START TO BATTEN DOWN A LITTLE EARLY TO BE SAFE.WHAT I WOULD DO FOR MYSELF? I LIKE TO start to pare back some of MY WEAKER POSITIONS, take profits on stronger ones. Later I might add one of the cool new exchange-traded funds that allow me to be short the market in a very easy and economical way. When it is time, i might post.Always until then.Good luck to all.