Subprime woes may keep Dutch budget in red -report 16 Sep 2007 21:13
Subprime woes may keep Dutch budget in red -report 16 Sep 2007 21:13
AMSTERDAM, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. subprime mortgage turmoil could cause a 2008 budget deficit of 0.5 percent of Dutch GDP, a TV news report said late on Saturday, citing a risk analysis of the 2008 budget plan it said it had obtained.
The subprime problem could result in a 4.5 percent decline in Dutch housing prices in 2008 and keep the budget in deficit, TV news programme RTL Nieuws said, citing the analysis.
Housing prices have a direct impact on the Dutch budget as they determine the level of some taxes paid by house owners.
A spokesman for the Dutch Finance Ministry said he did not know how RTL Nieuws obtained a copy of the budget plan, and declined to comment on its content.
The Dutch government will present next year's budget plan on Tuesday with a set of measures to put the budget back into surplus after an expected shortfall in government finances this year is expected to cause a 2007 deficit of 0.7 percent of GDP. In 2006, the Netherlands had a 0.6 percent budget surplus.
Defaults on U.S. home loans made to borrowers with poor credit records -- the subprime market -- have created a credit squeeze and triggered banking casualties on both sides of the Atlantic as loans were repackaged and sold on as asset-backed securities to investors across the world.
British mortgage lender Northern Rock <NRK.L> is the latest institutional casualty of the credit squeeze, requiring an emergency funding line from the Bank of England on Friday.
The Dutch Central Bank said earlier this month the impact of the subprime crisis for the Dutch mortgage market seemed limited and the Dutch macro-economic outlook remained positive, but calculations were difficult.
If there is not a significant impact, the Dutch budget is expected to show a surplus of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008, rising in subsequent years to a 1 percent surplus in 2011, RTL Nieuws said, citing the budget plan.
Rising income from gas exports would be partly responsible for the 2008 budget surplus, RTL Nieuws said, adding that 2008 inflation would increase to 2 percent from 1.75 percent this year.
Taxes and charges to Dutch citizens and companies would rise by a total of 7 billion euros ($9.7 billion), the majority coming from higher income taxes, said RTL Nieuws, which has obtained copies of the annual budget plan in previous years.
Higher taxes in some areas, in combination with expected budget surpluses, were necessary to absorb the impact of an ageing population and invest in education, a climate policy, and safe neighbourhoods, RTL Nieuws said, citing the budget plan.
RTL Nieuws did not say anything about a possible rise in value added tax (VAT), which Dutch daily De Telegraaf reported last month would rise to 20 percent from 19 percent.
Tuesday's budget plan will be the first presented by the government of Christian Democrats and Labour formed in January. ((Reporting by Gilbert Kreijger, editing by Will Waterman; [email protected]; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; +31 20 504 5007)) ($1=.7204 Euro)
Keywords: ECONOMY DUTCH BUDGET/SUBPRIME