大家好，很久不见了。贴下我对A股的看法
我早上回了speculatist上次的邮件，不过好像收到一封回邮说我没有权限在你的group发帖，所以就贴这里了。
事先声明，我回邮件的时候大约是上午10点左右，所以不要说我马后炮 :D
Thanks for sharing, Speculatist!
I agree with you on most of the points but the China A-share.
I think the trend is unclear now. I'm still not sure whether the market has turned bearish already. From my observation, the Shanghai Composite Index may continue deepen as what you said, but it could even create a new high some time later.
Here are some of my points:
1. So far the economic fundamentals in China are still sound, except CPI. Of course we can see a few signs of slowing down, but the overall growth rate will remain at 8% for 2008 (that's what Mr. Wen just said). I don't think that's the sign of a bear market.
2. We have seen an outflow of capital in the A-share market from QFII, but it could be due to the redemption of the individual investors. I'm not sure whether it's because the fund managers themselves are not optimistic about the A-share market.
3. From my observation, a lot of "hot money" are waiting for an opportunity. Everybody is waiting for a policy or regulation to be out. If the "yin hua shui" is reduced, or something the like happens, i won't rule out the possibility that the market will have a final push and create a new high. The craziness of the A-share market has been proven long ago.
4. The Olympic games, although has been used again and again, may still create a market rally. Who knows?
I don't know from what perspectives that you conclude the market to be totally bearish, but I suggest you to come back to China for some time. Maybe you will have a different view then.
As for the FX market, I think the Euro is clearly over-valued now. However, it might continue the current trend to appreciate for now. Sometime in April, we might see it start depreciating.
Some of my points to share with you.
Regards,
基本上，我觉得目前说A股已熊有点早。
我觉得还是一半一半的几率。
从今天市场的反应看，搞不好回上去的几率还大一点点。
当然，就算是再创个新高，估计之后也很难为继了。
古竹
Thanks for your points!
First, I want to clarify what is your "Trend" You are saying Market Trends or Economic Trends?
Most of my investor friends in China, who stayed more than 5 years in that market, told me that China Stock market is not really related to its Economic performance.
So if you mix the Shang Hai A trend with China Economic trends, that will be hard to discuss in the first place.
If you are saying Stock market trend, well, I purely,only read the trends showed in the chart, but not other channels, it tells me a bear market.
About 2 months ago I kept on saying once Shang Hai A broke 4762 and not come back quickly, it is in the bear market.
Many people opposed that, but reality is everything. I no need to quot any data here.
For economic, I am not that optimistic either. You ask me to go back for a while, I went back last year, and most importantly, I am not gathering data from consumers like you and me. I was talking to business people there.
Guess what I got? their complaining of higher cost, their complaining of new Labor Laws, and their complaining of rising RMB valuations.
Even you gather from consumers, you will feel the CPI. CPI is not a small thing. Fed quots fighting for inflation as their top priority ,same level as fighting for recession.
CPI means higher cost, means consumer sentiment, means life comfortability level.
Last I want to discuss the policy environment.
just check the history, everytime, everytime Chinese Government tried to tight the monetary policy, its stock market never rally on that backdrop. The only possiblity to bring an exception here might be the Olympics. But it ends in September.
Glad to express my reasons here. I am NOT here to persuade anyone to believe my view. But I am glad to say , my bearish views against several major market, expressed from last Nov , Dec, this year Jan, fortunately or unfortunately, have all come true. It is a validation to my macro-economic model.
Btw, IMHO, we are talking about something longer periods here. Longer than one day's up or down. Ignore that pls, if it is not a 5% or more change.