(ZT)Private property market transaction up 25.7% in March 2011
http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/private-property-market-transaction-257-in-march-2011
The private property market transacted 1,543 units in March up from February's 1,228 units.
According to PropNex, out of the units sold, Executive Condominium units comprised 157 units, or 10.2%.
The total number of units sold is the highest so far this year, although it still falls short of half the months in 2010.
“The pent-up demand sustained after the last round of cooling measures on 13 January appears to have been quenched by investors and HDB upgraders alike,” observes PropNex Corporate Communications Manager Mr Adam Tan.
“The high figure is surprising, considering that only two projects sold 100 units or more,” he says, referring to H2O Residences’ 255 units and Questa@Dunman’s 100 units. “Usually months with greater sales are the result of many larger projects launching and selling high numbers of units.” However, he concedes that these two projects certainly helped boost the March sales figure, accounting for about one out of every four units sold in the month.
Sustained Demand From HDB Upgraders
Mr Tan points out that the strong response to the launch of H2O Residences in Sengkang, as well as the 157 EC units sold, indicate a sustained interest in private property by HDB upgraders.
“Including ECs, 798 units, or 51.7% of the total, were sold below the $1,200psf mark,” Mr Tan says. “Consumers are still interested in the mass market properties, but developers may face resistance if the price per square foot is too high, especially in the Outside Central Region (OCR).”
One example he cites is Centro Residences in Ang Mo Kio, which saw three units sold in March for a median price of $1,343psf. 67 of its 250 launched units still remain unsold today, whilst only 45 of H2O Residences’ 300 launched units remain unsold.
“As it is, $1,200psf is now a more realistic benchmark price for a unit in the OCR today, as compared to $1,000psf before.”
Renewed Interest From Investors
“Investors seem to have taken the 13 January cooling measures in stride,” Mr Tan continues, “with a renewed demand in both the mid- and high-end markets. Excluding ECs, the number of units sold in the mid-range market, or $1,200–$2,499psf range, was 670, or 48.3% of the total. The high-end market, with units costing $2,500psf or more, recorded 75 units, or 5.4%. Both markets saw the highest levels reached for this year and reflect a returning investor confidence in the mid-to-high-end property market here.”
In fact, Mr Tan observes, not including the ECs, the mid-end market reclaimed its January position as the sector with the most number of sales.
April Sales Expected To Remain Steady
Mr Tan expects April’s sales to hold steady, with over 1,500 units sold. This is due to the fat that developers will be launching more projects in the coming months and the economic growth is at an unexpectedly strong 8.5% for 1Q11.
However, he cautions that this forecast is not withstanding further cooling measures by the Government, and any unforeseen disaster or economic downturn.
“Developers must also remain sensitive to the pricing of their projects,” he concludes.
宁艺庆
(ZT)Global house prices IN CROWDED Hong Kong, property is so expensive that even the estate agents are squeezed for space. The number of licensed agents reached 31,306 at the end of last year, an increase of 40% since March 2009. The qualifying exam is so popular that fees are going up. Golden Hill Properties in Wanchai makes do with a storefront but no store. Its agents perch on stools outside, reading from computer screens encased behind glass and typing on keyboards unlocked from a drawer.
But whatever those 31,000 agents say, Hong Kong homes are not a good deal, according to our latest global house-price index (see chart). In theory, the price of a home should reflect the value of the services it provides. People who choose to rent their homes buy those services on a monthly basis. Home prices should therefore reflect the rents that tenants pay. Our index calculates the ratio of prices to rents in 20 economies. In Hong Kong, that ratio is now almost 54% above its long-run average—and it is still rising.
People in Hong Kong often blame buyers from mainland China for pushing up prices. Ironically, mainlanders often blame buyers from Hong Kong for their own property frenzy. At a recent conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing, students complained that their parents had scrimped and saved to send them to university in the city, but now upon graduation they could barely afford to live there.
Prices in China are not that high relative to rents: our index suggests that homes are overvalued by less than 13%. But this is based on the government’s 70-cities index, which showed prices rising by only 6.4% in the year to December. That figure seemed implausibly low to many of China’s stretched homebuyers, and the Chinese government appears to share their scepticism. Last month it said it would stop publishing the national figures, releasing only the local results instead. These show plenty of variation between cities: prices rose by 6.8% in Beijing in January, for instance, but by 1.5% in Shanghai.
Hong Kong’s price rises are the steepest in our index but it is not the most overvalued housing market. That honour remains with Australia, which is overvalued by about 56%. In third place is France, where the ratio of prices to rents is about 48% above average. That may be one reason why over 40% of residents choose to rent. Tenants are well protected under French law from capricious landlords. Owners, on the other hand, must contend with volatile prices, partly because housing supply is so unresponsive to demand. A 10% increase in prices prompts only a 3.6% increase in supply, according to the OECD, compared with a 20% increase in America.
Explore and compare global housing data with our interactive house-price tool
In Australia the market is at least inching closer to fair value. Home prices in Australia’s eight state capitals rose by only 1.2% in the year to January, according to the RP Data-Rismark index. Compared with the month before, prices fell by 1.6%. (The index shows the latest quarterly data.)
Indeed, only in Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland is the property market more overvalued than it was before the global economic downturn began in the third quarter of 2007. In every other market the ratio of prices to rents has fallen over that period. In America, prices may have overshot a little. Using the Case-Shiller index of prices, the market looks undervalued by almost 8%.
In both Japan and Germany the housing market is drifting even further below fair value: homes were already cheap and are growing cheaper. In Germany the ratio of prices to rents has tended to fall since the early 1980s, a trend interrupted, and then briefly, only by unification.
In Japan owning has been getting cheaper relative to renting since 1990, when the country’s infamous property bubble burst with devastating effect. The market is now undervalued by more than a third, our index suggests. Even estate agents seem to be losing heart. According to the Real Estate Transaction Improvement Organisation, their numbers have fallen for the past four fiscal years.
Hong Kong phew-whee Our quarterly index reveals the world’s most overvalued homes Mar 3rd 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition