怎么样 私宅将再降10% 交易量16年开始增多
PRIVATE property prices in Singapore could fall a further 10 per cent from current levels over the next two years, said BNP Paribas in a research report on Monday.
"Our central case is for a relatively orderly unwind. Maintenance of 5 per cent per annum household income growth and a two-year period of correction (based on previous property cycles) means that prices need to fall by 10 per cent over the coming two years to lower the price-to-income ratio to 8.5 times.
"Such a decline will push up loan-to-value ratios and force households to inject fresh capital into their mortgages when they attempt to refinance, further constraining private consumption in the coming years," said BNP Paribas, adding that tighter immigration policies have had a "detrimental impact" on demand for housing.
At the same time, however, Nomura believes that in 2016, Singaporean tenants could turn buyers, and landlords could be motivated to sell - possibly resulting in higher resale transactions as well as demand for completed units in developers' inventory.
On the buyers' side of things, Nomura notes that monthly cash outlays could be lower than monthly rent payments in 2016. This is because the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Ordinary Account contribution for Singapore workers will be higher, and can be used to service mortgages.
Sellers, on the other hand, are likely to be motivated by a combination of rental declines, higher mortgage rates and higher property tax.
"If our thesis is proven correct, we believe there could be a robust rebound in resale transaction volume in 2016 (forecast)," said Nomura, adding that CapitaLand could benefit the most from higher demand for developers' completed but unsold inventory.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/private-property-prices-may-fall-another-10-in-next-two-years-report
石儿
12月加息定了？ 10月非农数据创年内最佳表现
美国劳工部数据显示，美国10月非农就业人口增加27.1万人，预期增加18.2万人，前值下修至增加13.7万人。该数据为年内最佳表现。同期公布的美国10月失业率5.0%，创2008年以来新低，预期5.0%，前值5.1%。
具体数据来看，美国10月私营部门就业人口增加26.8万人，同样大幅好于预期的16.9万人，前值从增加11.8万人修正为增加14.9万人。美国10月制造业就业人口未有变化，预期减少0.4万人，前值减少0.9万人。
美联储关注的薪资变化来看，美国10月平均每小时工资环比增长0.4%，预期增长0.2%，前值持平。美国10月平均每小时工资同比增长2.5%，预期增长2.3%，前值增长2.2%。美国10月平均每周工时34.5小时，预期34.5小时，前值34.5小时。
劳动参与率并无明显变化，美国10月劳动力参与率62.4%，预期62.4%，前值62.4%。
数据公布之后，债王格罗斯称，美联储可以准备好加息了。 美联储芝加哥联储主席Evans表示，就业数字是个好数字，就业报告看起来支持自己对明年的展望，薪资增长强劲将有助于通胀走高。摩根大通首席经济学家 Michael Feroli认为，数据显示劳动力市场复苏强劲，12月美联储有相当大的概率选择加息。期货市场显示，对于美联储加息的概率预期升至70%，周四为60%。
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市场高度关注美联储是否将于12月加息。因为10月非农报告是影响美联储决策的重要数据。华尔街见闻网站此前报道，经济学家们认为，如果10月非农就业人口增长符合约18万人的预期，美联储很可能在12月的FOMC会议上加息。
数据公布之前，《华尔街日报》报道提到，美国新增非农就业人数已经连续三个月令人失望，要让加息成为今年12月美联储会议的议题，今晚公布的10月数据必须带来一些相对正面的消息。到9月非农就业报告公布为止，美国月均新增就业者仅16.7万人。Stifel Economics的首席经济学家Lindsey Piegza认为：“就业没有强劲增长，美联储会越来越难以证明今年年底以前加息合理。”
美联储主席耶伦和纽约联储主席Dudley本周都表示，美国经济表现良好，预计经济将继续增长，足以进一步推动劳动力市场改善，并让通胀回升到2%的目标。如果接下来的信息显示，美国经济与预期一致，那么12月采取加息行动可能是合适的。
http://wallstreetcn.com/node/225745