我对长天Changtian的分析

（1) 低 PE: 3.0 - 3.5.
假如盈利回到2008年 Q1-Q3的水平， Q4与2009Q4类似，全年净利将为RMB234,717m, 每股盈利36分。
（2) 每股净现金: RMB0.7.
（3) 每股净资产：RMB1.5.
（4) 好股东: 王金发，Andrew Barron Worden
（5) 双边上市可能

分析报告：
Conclusion: Target Price at 48 cents

Changtian is probably one of the largest specialty film and 2-A2MPS producers in China and its customers represent a wide section of the economy. Changtian’s future outlook is thus intimately linked to China’s industrial output. With the Chinese economy in a strong recovery mode and, according to the Economist, expected to grow 8.6% in 2010, the outlook for Changtian looks extremely promising.

Among its SGX-listed peers, Changtian boasts the best margins and the strongest year-on-year performance in what was a difficult business environment in 2009. From a valuation perspective, every Changtian share which last traded at S$0.19 is backed by S$0.144 of net cash. That Barron Partners LP recently became a substantial shareholder of Changtian also lends further weight to the view that Changtian is undervalued.

Assuming Changtian can bring the momentum of its 4Q09 performance into FY10, earnings per share could reach about 8 Singapore cents per share, even after factoring in margin erosion and higher selling expenses. This translates into P/E of a mere 2.4 based on the current traded price of 19 cents.

Further assuming a very conservative FY10 P/E of 6, Changtian’s 12-month fair value is thus 48 cents per share, representing a tremendous 150% upside from the last traded price. BUY.