是否最近几年新加坡对美国保持贸易顺差？
但是这个顺差足以支撑近年新币的升幅吗？
这里是否有如下因数：政府为了防止通货膨胀上升到更高，而抛售美元资产，买入新币资产？
如此是如此的话，这个政策可以保持多久？
应该说是美元弱不是新元强
1。美国有巨大的财赤和贸赤,导致美元弱势。新加坡长期财盈和贸盈,所以吸引资金流入。但主要的升值压力在欧元澳币新西兰币。
2。美元单边贬值已经是5年以前的事了。对欧元日圆已开始上升。对新币也比两三年前的低点高。
3。新加坡的币值是等同于美国的加减息的monetary tool. 所以通胀币值上升,和美元不一样。
你有兴趣的话可以看这个
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossible_trinity
第一段和最后一段
TheImpossible trinity(also known as theTrilemma) is atrilemmaininternational economicswhich states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:Afixed exchange rate.Freecapitalmovement (absence ofcapital controls).An independentmonetary policy.
The point is that you can't have it all: A country must pick two out of three. It can fix its exchange rate without emasculating its central bank, but only by maintaining controls on capital flows (like China today); it can leave capital movement free but retain monetary autonomy, but only by letting the exchange rate fluctuate (like Britain – or Canada); or it can choose to leave capital free and stabilize the currency, but only by abandoning any ability to adjust interest rates to fight inflation or recession (like Argentina today,[7]).
新加坡的通胀率高应该主要是由住房成本和交通成本高涨导致的。
反观美国这几年房价一直在低位，房贷利率逐年下降，一定程度拉低了通胀率。
货币兑换率主要是由国际贸易差和国际投资差决定的。
邹波
跟fiscal policy比较相关
trade deficit, fiscal deficit