from dbs
It’s Crunch Time
Story: Recent monetary policy measures undertaken by
Chinese authorities reflect a move to pre-empt potential
downside risks for China’s growth rate, given that China’s
M1 growth rate has been falling sharply in the past 6
months, indicating that there might be a domestic credit
crunch on the cards. We believe that the current RRR cut is
tailored largely for SMEs outside of the property sector –
given that it applies only to smaller banks. As such, our
view is that the recent rate cuts are likely to have a muted
effect on the developers, and it could still be challenging
for developers to obtain credit from the banks in spite of
the easing. However, should this move by the Chinese
authorities signal a more progressive easing of credit
policies, then developers would certainly benefit from the
increased liquidity in the medium-term. But until sale
volumes in China pick up, thereby improving developers’
cash flow, developers are not likely to reap significant
benefit from this recent move.
Point: Yanlord has also been linked to a bribery case
currently undergoing trial, involving the former deputy
chief of Pudong accused of accepting a RMB4.9m bribe in
exchange for land development rights. Yanlord has
responded to say that the units in question were priced
based on first-phase launch prices and the transaction fell
within the ordinary course of business for the sale and
promotion of its apartment units. It also said that it did not
receive any assistance in obtaining land use rights.
Relevance: We have also drawn up a few valuation
scenarios. In the bear-case, we take a 30% drop in
property prices with prices recovering back to 2007/08
peak levels only in 2012. In light of a tighter operating
environment, we have increased our cap rate assumptions
for its investment properties by 100-200 bps and an
increased WACC for a higher country and equity risk
premium. Our base-case TP of S$1.00 (prev S$2.06) is
premised on a 60% discount (prev 40%) to an RNAV of
S$2.49 (prev S$3.45). Downgrade to HOLD.