（八卦）Q2 2009下降-3.275%
假设下降的加速度还是和上个季度(Q12009)一样，就是开始-1.9%到最后-1.9%+（-1.9%-0.85%）,平均下降-3.275%


另外对于"HDB价格的历史最高点发生在2008年的11月最后1，2个星期", HDB自己有完全的数据，他们应该是最清楚最高点在什么时候，以及每个地区的最高点发生在什么时候。

说句实话 这有点无聊
一座楼里面的每个房子都不一样 更何况一个区的房子
价格不同是正常的 单看一个单位的价格是没有任何意义的
只有统计出来的平均价格才有意义 反映出来也就是HDB的index
连HDB的统计都会标明某区某房型成交数量太少 意思就是不具统计上的代表意义
至于像半仙算命一样的预测高点低点时间涨幅 恐怕股龄超过一年的就不干这种事情了

预测是比较无聊的，本来标题也标了“八卦”2字；至于根据数据计算之前发生的事情
有时候倒是有点意义。观察每个区的涨/跌幅也是可以知道哪里的房子在价格上比较软/硬。

另外，不明白你为什么强调“只有统计出来的平均价格才有意义”，因为我好像都是根据平均价格来八卦的，
没有很个例的东西，即使是JE的数据，谈的也是“统计出来的平均价格”。

还是来点行业人士的分析吧：Premium for HDB resale flats in sharp fall
Premium for HDB resale flats in sharp fall
Apr 26, 2009 - The Business Times
Emilyn Yap


BUYERS are increasingly reluctant to pay a premium for HDB flats, going by fast-falling cash-over-valuation (COV) figures from the Housing & Development Board yesterday. The median COV for resale transactions dived a stunning 73 per cent from $15,000 in Q4 2008 to $4,000 in Q1 2009.

In fact, the median COVs for five-room and executive flats were both zero dollars in Q1 2009. Just a quarter ago, buyers paid median cash amounts of $11,000 and $12,000 on top of valuation for five-room and executive flats respectively.

'The sharp drop in COVs is due to increasing public resistance to paying above what are already higher valuations,' said PropNex chief executive officer Mohamed Ismail.

According to HDB, the proportion of flats that changed hands above valuation fell in Q1 2009 to 62 per cent of all resale transactions, from 85 per cent in Q4 2008.

ERA Asia-Pacific noted that more higher-value HDB resale flats are being sold below valuation - for $30,000 to $50,000 less in some cases. 'In coming quarters, we are likely to see more and more larger flats sold at or below valuation as the harsh economic conditions hit home,' said ERA associate director Eugene Lim.

Stricter loan-to-value ratios could have contributed to the trend. 'Banks are becoming more conservative and there have been cases where buyers are offered only 70 per cent loans instead of the usual 80 per cent,' Mr Lim said.

The cooling economy has also turned some home-seekers away from five-room to four-room flats, he noted. And as a result, prices of larger flats may face downward pressure.

On the whole, HDB's resale price index slid 0.8 per cent in Q1 2009 from Q4 2008, shrinking more than the flash estimate of minus 0.6 per cent released early this month. This is the first time the index has shrunk after growing more than 30 per cent over nine straight quarters.

Property consultants expect resale HDB flat prices to drop 5-10 per cent for the whole year, with larger flats accounting for more of the fall.

Nevertheless, 'we do not expect the decrease in HDB resale prices to dent upgrader demand for private property, because the rate of price fall of HDB resale flats is still smaller than that of private homes,' said Knight Frank's director of consultancy & research Nicholas Mak.

Three to four-room flats should enjoy greater demand, consultants reckon. As PropNex's Mr Mohamed observed, buyers are still willing to pay COV for these flats.

HDB data also shows a rising proportion of resale flat applications involving smaller flats.

Three- and four-room flats accounted for 69.8 per cent of applications in Q1 2009, compared with 67 per cent in Q4 2008.

There were 6,446 resale transactions in Q1 2009, 4.2 per cent more than in the preceding quarter. 'HDB resale transactions typically increase when times are bad,' said ERA's Mr Lim.

But with HDB building more new flats, some demand may shift, he added.

HDB said yesterday that it plans to launch another 2,400 build-to-order flats over the next six months, of which about 1,000 will be three-room and smaller flats.

现在看历史高点，不如预测一下底部
普通人都是买涨不买跌，越跌越不买。

预测底部很难。买涨不买跌是有道理的，价格方面，买跌你3个月马上就后悔，
买涨你可能一年后才后悔。 预测底部很难，但是大家都知道，你能等的话，要买底部也不难，等到私宅数据公布开始上涨的时候马上买，就差不多是底了。

如果不能等那么久，等下跌15％的时候就差不多可以买了。