从BLOOMBERG上看到的, 个位牛牛有何看法?

By Rich Miller
Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate profits are in a
recession, and the entire economy may not be far behind.
Slower sales and higher energy and labor costs are forcing
companies from Bear Stearns Cos. to Pitney Bowes Inc. to reduce
spending and hiring. Their efforts to keep earnings from eroding
even further raise the risk that the economy, already weakened
by the steepest housing slide since 1991, may shrink sometime
next year.
``The earnings recession has already arrived,'' says David
Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch & Co. in
New York. ``We are going to see an economic recession in '08.''
Corporate profits, as measured by the Commerce Department,
fell at an annual rate of $19.3 billion in the third quarter
from the second, as domestic earnings dropped by $41.2 billion.
The drag from sagging U.S. sales and huge writedowns offset
robust earnings abroad, fueled by the weak U.S dollar. The
fourth quarter may be an even bigger bust.
``In the third quarter, the tide shifted, and for the
worse,'' says Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist for Bank
of America Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``The domestic-
profits squeeze is in its early stages and will be severe enough
to overwhelm strong foreign earnings.''
Caterpillar Inc. of Peoria, Illinois, the world's largest
maker of bulldozers and excavators, shocked investors in October
when it said it expected the economy to be ``near to, or even in
recession'' in 2008. At the time, Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford
Motor Co., the second-largest U.S. automaker, was still
``optimistic,'' Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally said Oct.
15. ``There's a lot to be positive about,'' he told reporters.

`Dicey Territory'

Little more than a month later, in a Nov. 19 interview,
Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, Ford's chief economist, said the economy
was ``in some dicey territory,'' though would likely ``edge by''
without a recession.
Profits for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies fell almost
25 percent on a per-share basis in the third quarter, the
biggest year-over-year decline in almost five years. David Wyss,
S&P's chief economist, expects their earnings to fall as much as
30 percent in the fourth quarter as companies take more
writedowns for bad investments. Excluding such extraordinary
items, operating profits may fall as well, he says.
Consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg indicate S&P 500
operating profits may rise just 1.1 percent in the current
quarter.

Reduced Expectations

That's down from the 8.8 percent increase analysts foresaw
a month ago. Operating profits fell 2.5 percent in the third
quarter, the first drop in more than five years.
Even if profits have peaked, that doesn't mean the economy
is about to turn down, says Steven Wieting, managing director of
economic and market analysis at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in
New York. In the last expansion, profit margins began
contracting in late 1997; there was no recession until March
2001.
What's troubling this time is that much of last quarter's
damage came in the financial sector, where operating earnings
fell 25 percent, as banks and brokers were hurt by losses from
subprime mortgages and related investments. Analysts' estimates
compiled by Bloomberg indicate the industry's profits this
quarter may decline more than 25 percent.
The plunge in financial profits is a triple whammy for the
economy as banks and other institutions pare payrolls, cut
capital spending and become stingier with loans.

Job Cuts

Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bear Stearns,
Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Morgan Stanley
have announced some 25,000 job cuts so far this year. Gustavo
Dolfino, president of New York executive-search firm Whiterock
Group LLC, said in a Nov. 20 interview he expects them to fire
thousands more.
Claims for unemployment benefits jumped to a nine-month
high in the week ended Nov. 24. Economists polled by Bloomberg
forecast that data to be released Dec. 7 will show payroll
growth slowed to 70,000 in October from 166,000 in September,
while the jobless rate rose.
``We see a significant slowdown in the growth of jobs and
equipment spending in 2008,'' says Allen Sinai, chief global
economist for Decision Economics in New York.
Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a
proxy for future business investment, fell 2.3 percent in
October, the most since February, according to Commerce
Department figures.

Disappointed Investors

Weaker business spending held back sales at Cisco Systems
Inc., the world's biggest maker of networking equipment. That
disappointed investors, who have pushed the San Jose,
California-based company's shares down more than 17 percent
since Nov. 6. Chief Executive Officer John Chambers said orders
have slowed from Cisco's top 25 U.S. customers, which include
eight financial-services companies.
Stamford, Connecticut-based Pitney Bowes blamed weakness in
the financial-services market for a 14 percent drop in its
quarterly net income. The company, the world's largest maker of
postal meters, also announced plans to fire 1,500 workers.
The biggest hit to the economy from fading financial
profits may come from tighter lending standards. The Federal
Reserve reported last month that banks were making it harder for
businesses and consumers to borrow. Analysts including Sinai
expect terms to tighten further.
Advanta Corp., a Spring House, Pennsylvania-based provider
of corporate credit cards, cut its 2007 earnings forecast Nov.
27 and withdrew its 2008 estimate as late payments rose.
``Higher delinquency rates will continue for some time,''
Chief Executive Officer Dennis Alter told analysts. ``What is
not clear is where the economy and consumer behavior is
headed.''

Sinking Boat Sales

Scarce credit could make things even tougher for companies
such as Brunswick Corp. of Lake Forest, Illinois, maker of
Bayliner boats. The firm is cutting 170 jobs as it struggles
with what Chief Executive Officer Dustan McCoy suggested might
be the weakest U.S. boat market since 1965.
Foreign companies are starting to feel the fallout from
weakness in the U.S. -- a reversal of the recent trend, in which
American firms benefited from strength overseas.
Stockholm-based Ericsson AB, the world's biggest maker of
wireless networks, said Nov. 20 that fourth-quarter sales may be
at the lower end of a forecast it gave a month earlier as demand
falters in North America and Europe.
London-based Signet Group Plc, the world's largest
specialty retailer of jewelry, said Nov. 27 that a slump in U.S.
sales may cause earnings to trail estimates.
The next day, Wolseley Plc said it will cut 1,300 jobs in
the U.S. after the decline in homebuilding led to a 15 percent
fall in profits at the world's biggest distributor of plumbing
and heating equipment.
``Looking out over the next 12 months, the U.S. is going to
be very challenging,'' Chip Hornsby, chief executive officer of
the Reading, England-based company, said on a conference call.