from dbs
It’s Crunch Time
Story: Recent monetary policy measures undertaken by
Chinese authorities reflect a move to pre-empt potential
downside risks for China’s growth rate, given that China’s
M1 growth rate has been falling sharply in the past 6
months, indicating that there might be a domestic credit
crunch on the cards. We believe that the current RRR cut is
tailored largely for SMEs outside of the property sector –
given that it applies only to smaller banks. As such, our
view is that the recent rate cuts are likely to have a muted
effect on the developers, and it could still be challenging
for developers to obtain credit from the banks in spite of
the easing. However, should this move by the Chinese
authorities signal a more progressive easing of credit
policies, then developers would certainly benefit from the
increased liquidity in the medium-term. But until sale
volumes in China pick up, thereby improving developers’
cash flow, developers are not likely to reap significant
benefit from this recent move.
Point: Yanlord has also been linked to a bribery case
currently undergoing trial, involving the former deputy
chief of Pudong accused of accepting a RMB4.9m bribe in
exchange for land development rights. Yanlord has
responded to say that the units in question were priced
based on first-phase launch prices and the transaction fell
within the ordinary course of business for the sale and
promotion of its apartment units. It also said that it did not
receive any assistance in obtaining land use rights.
Relevance: We have also drawn up a few valuation
scenarios. In the bear-case, we take a 30% drop in
property prices with prices recovering back to 2007/08
peak levels only in 2012. In light of a tighter operating
environment, we have increased our cap rate assumptions
for its investment properties by 100-200 bps and an
increased WACC for a higher country and equity risk
premium. Our base-case TP of S$1.00 (prev S$2.06) is
premised on a 60% discount (prev 40%) to an RNAV of
S$2.49 (prev S$3.45). Downgrade to HOLD.
从今天最低点开始回弹很有力。
一步一个台阶，象是有主力进场了。
我是0.97进了三十手。
这我也看到了，贿赂在房地产业是常有的事了。
我也在关注事态的发展，看看有没有什么转机什么的。
现在的股价应该已经反映最坏的情况了，有点好消息就上了，这是我猜的。
我建议加仓就不要了,倒是应该设个止损点.
以免烧到手.
幸娅
yesterday broker's email about yanlord
Singapore-listed Yanlord down 10 pct on link to bribery case
SHANGHAI (XFN-ASIA) - Singapore-listed property developer Yanlord Land
Group
was down more than 10 pct after a report linked the company to a bribery
case in
Shanghai involving the former deputy chief of the city's Pudong district.
Shares of Yanlord were down 0.130 sgd or 10.3 pct at 1.130 in heavy
trade
after rising as much as 4 pct earlier in the morning.
Prosecutors allege that former deputy district chief Kang Huijun -- who
went
on trial yesterday -- accepted a 189 square-meter apartment worth 4.89 mln
yuan
in the Yanlord Gardens complex in Pudong in 2001 in exchange for land
development rights, according to the Shanghai Daily newspaper.
Yanlord Land is the developer of Yanlord Gardens, which is located in
Shanghai's financial district.
The company had no immediate comment on the report.